By Lenka Andrysova
Nearly half of the countries in the world are demanding that the International Criminal Court postpone prosecution of the Sudanese President Umar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir according to an October story in the Economist. To reach this end, these countries call for the United Nations Security Council to declare that the actual arrest of Mr Bashir is a threat to the peace, breach of peace or an act of aggression as stated in the UN Charter. However, what is at stake if the current situation in the region could not be described as peaceful and stable at all.
What is more, it is President Bashir who has partially contributed to the disastrous state in Sudan. Bearing this in mind, the International Criminal Court (ICC) charged him with most serious crimes. Mr Bashir is facing the accusation of committing the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur, which makes his case unprecedented. That is to say, nobody before him stood in front of the ICC wearing a burden of triggering genocide. As a result of his decision, 98 percent of the villages inhabited by the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa people are said to be attacked and destroyed. According to ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the Sudanese president should be held responsible for internal displacement of 2.7 million Sudanese during five-year conflict, out of which estimated 300,000 lost their lives. Despite these serious claims, 53-member African Union (AU) and 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) stand by him.
These Afro-Arabic organizations representing a remarkable part of the world population suggest that the arrest of the Sudanese leader would undermine the stability in the region. They are right as to that fact, as the removal of Mr Bashir would definitely alter the situation in Sudan, one of the most unstable countries in the entire world, where unfettered warlordism flourishes. Clearly, as Bashir is the top man in his country, his prosecution would fundamentally shatter the Sudanese political pyramid. The Sudan’s president is not only chief of state, but also head of government. He even substitutes for the legislative body, since the Parliament has not been absent since 1999 when Mr Bashir himself dissolved both chambers. Hence, putting the most powerful man in the country into jail would mean that Sudan would lose all the political leadership over night. This would lead, according to heads of member states of the AU and OIC, to a catastrophe.
However, having arrested the Sudanese president, political changes in Khartoum could spark much needed reforms in the country. If Mr Bashir was convicted, the power would be likely transferred into the hands of the existing First Vice President Salva Kiir, who is in favor of independence of the Southern Sudan, or to the Second Vice President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, who would probably initiate some changes, too. As a result, Sudan could start a new era of development with thus far virtually unknown leaders. If the ICC does insist on arresting the Sudanese president, this failed state in the third world could be given a chance for a much desirable change.
The argumentation of the African and Arabic nations which lies in retaining status quo should not convince the UN Council since it also did not take into account that Sudan would soon undergo some changes anyways. By July 2009 Sudanese people are slated to hold elections for their president and representatives. If the choice of new governing elites were to turn democratic, a wind of change would surely blow off the president who seized power during a 1989 military coup.
Similarly, Human Rights Watch, an organization following development of this case since 2001, strongly believes that demands of the AU and OIC are irrelevant. According to their report, a deferral of an ICC investigation risks legitimizing political interference with the work of a judicial institution and could set a dangerous precedent for accused in other situations. Therefore, any exception must be extremely rare, which should be valid for the Sudanese case as well.